The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a warning that weather conditions over the next few weeks could lead to heatwave development, particularly in the plains of southern Punjab and Sindh, as the March–April–May (MAM) season trends warmer than usual.
According to PMD, mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal across much of the country. The strongest warming signals are projected for northern regions, including Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where temperature departures from seasonal averages are expected to be most pronounced.
Rainfall projections indicate near-normal to slightly above-normal precipitation for most regions. Central to western areas—especially southern KP, adjoining central Punjab, and northern Balochistan—may experience slightly higher rainfall due to enhanced spring activity from westerly disturbances. Other regions, including Sindh, central-to-southern Balochistan, northern KP, Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan, are expected to receive rainfall close to seasonal averages.
PMD also highlighted potential on-ground impacts over the coming weeks:
- Dust storms, strong winds, and hailstorms may occur due to temperature gradients developing during spring.
- Early pollen peaks are likely in major cities such as Islamabad/Rawalpindi and Lahore, with rainfall after mid-March possibly extending pollen season and affecting allergy sufferers.
- Warmer conditions may accelerate pest and disease activity in Rabi crops in the plains, requiring careful monitoring by farmers.
- Above-normal temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan and upper KP could speed up snowmelt, raising the risk of glacier-related hazards, including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).
PMD emphasized that seasonal forecasts provide broad trend guidance and should be used alongside short-term weather updates for effective planning and daily decision-making. Residents and authorities are advised to remain alert and take necessary precautions as temperatures rise.
