A decrease in petroleum product prices appears imminent for Pakistan, starting August 1, as a combination of favorable global oil trends and reduced import premiums drives down the cost of fuel.
According to informed industry sources, the price of petrol at the ex-refinery level could decline by approximately Rs9.70 per litre, while high-speed diesel (HSD) may see a drop of Rs3.73 per litre.
The forecasted reduction stems from a notable dip in global crude oil benchmarks. Over the last fortnight, the per-barrel price of petrol has fallen from $75.27 to $73.19, accompanied by a sharp reduction in premiums from $9.61 to $6.74. Meanwhile, customs duties have been adjusted slightly, easing from Rs15.33 to Rs14.29 per litre.
As a result, the ex-refinery price of petrol is now projected to stand at Rs159.66, down from Rs168.73, provided no significant fluctuations occur before the end of the month.
The Pakistani rupee’s exchange rate could further influence the final pricing. A stable or appreciating rupee may reduce import costs and enhance the potential relief for consumers.
However, all eyes are on the government’s revenue strategy. If the petroleum levy is increased to meet fiscal targets, much of the projected relief may be absorbed, limiting the impact at the retail level.
A formal summary outlining the proposed price adjustments will be submitted to the Ministry of Finance on July 31. A final decision, pending Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s approval, is expected to be announced the same evening.
